2024 Presidential Elections

As the United States approaches the 2024 presidential election, the political landscape remains deeply polarized. With Vice President Kamala Harris stepping in as the Democratic nominee following President Biden’s withdrawal due to health concerns, and former President Donald Trump securing the Republican nomination, the stage is set for one of the most consequential elections in recent history.

The State of the Race

Recent polls show an extremely tight race between Harris and Trump. According to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, both candidates are deadlocked at 48% among likely voters. 10

. This reflects a slight shift from early October when Harris held a narrow lead of 49% to 46%. 10

Table 1: National Polling Average (as of October 2024)

Source: 3

While national polls provide a general picture, the outcome will likely be determined by results in key battleground states such as Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. 10

Public Opinion on Key Issues

The 2024 election is being shaped by several critical issues:

1. Economy: Economic concerns remain a top priority for voters. The latest Gallup poll shows that economic issues are frequently cited as the most important problem facing the country. 5
2. Climate Change: Despite polarization, a majority of Americans view climate change as a serious issue. A Pew Research Center survey found that 58% say climate change is a major threat to the well-being of the United States. 4
3. Immigration: Immigration policy continues to be a divisive issue, with significant differences between Democratic and Republican voters.
4. Democracy and Election Integrity: Concerns about the state of American democracy persist. A YouGov/Yahoo poll found that 57% of Republicans still view Biden’s 2020 election as illegitimate. 9

Legislative Context

Several pieces of legislation have shaped the political landscape leading up to the 2024 election:

1. Inflation Reduction Act (2022): This landmark climate legislation, allocating nearly $400 billion towards clean energy and climate initiatives, has been a key talking point for the Harris campaign. 6
2. The Earth Act to Stop Climate Pollution by 2030 (H.R.598): Introduced by Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D-NY), this bill aims to establish requirements for renewable energy, zero-emission vehicles, and regenerative agriculture. 6
3. The Climate Emergency Act of 2021 (S.938): Sponsored by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), this bill would direct the President to declare a national emergency relating to climate change. 6

Key Officials and Their Positions

Opinions from Senate officials highlight the deep divisions in American politics:Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Senate Majority Leader:
“Climate change is the greatest threat facing our planet. The Inflation Reduction Act is a historic down payment on deficit reduction to fight inflation, invest in domestic energy production and manufacturing, and reduce carbon emissions by roughly 40 percent by 2030.”. 6

Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV), Chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee:
“The Inflation Reduction Act is the product of bipartisan compromise and common sense… This legislation ensures we are not walking away from our responsibility to produce the energy our country needs while reducing emissions.”. 6

Senator John Barrasso (R-WY), Ranking Member of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee:
“The Democrats’ reckless tax and spending plan is a disaster for Wyoming families and American energy… This legislation will raise energy costs and make America less secure.”. 6

Challenges and Controversies

The 2024 election faces several significant challenges:

1. Election Integrity Concerns: Both Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, have indicated they would not accept a loss in November, a sentiment echoed by nearly half of Republican voters and more than a quarter of Democratic voters. 9
2. Potential for Post-Election Unrest: Nearly half of the populace believes that civil unrest is likely to occur following the election. 9
3. Voter Turnout: Mobilizing voters, particularly among key demographic groups, remains a challenge for both campaigns.
4. Misinformation and Disinformation: 63% of the public believes disinformation will be a factor in the outcome of the 2024 elections, with social media (42%) and news media (40%) seen as the most likely sources. 1

The Path Forward

As the nation approaches November 5, 2024, the outcome remains highly uncertain. The election’s results will likely hinge on a few key factors:

1. Swing State Performance: The candidates’ performance in battleground states will be crucial.
2. Voter Turnout: The ability of each campaign to mobilize their base and attract independent voters will be critical.
3. Late-Breaking Events: Given the tight race, any significant events in the final days of the campaign could prove decisive.
4. Post-Election Process: Given the concerns about election integrity, the process of counting votes and certifying results will be under intense scrutiny.

Regardless of the outcome, the 2024 election will likely have far-reaching implications for American democracy and policy direction for years to come. As Senator Chuck Schumer noted, “The need to help Ukraine is urgent. We must act now to provide the aid that Ukraine desperately needs to defend itself and its democracy. 4

This sentiment of urgency and high stakes extends to the domestic political landscape as well.As the nation navigates this critical juncture, the resilience of American democratic institutions will be put to the test. The coming weeks and months will determine not just who leads the country for the next four years, but also the trajectory of American democracy in an increasingly complex and challenging global environment.

Sources:

1 https://pac.org/impact/few-americans-believe-2024-elections-will-be-honest-and-open

3https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_States_presidential_election

4 https://www.undp.org/press-releases/worlds-largest-survey-public-opinion-climate-change-majority-people-call-wide-ranging-action

5 https://news.gallup.com/610757/2024-presidential-election-center.aspx

6 https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/polls-reveal-citizens-support-energiewende

9 https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/28/presidential-election-trump-harris-uncertainty

10 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/25/us/politics/poll-harris-trump-times-siena.html